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One more shot at the moon!


Two articles caught my attention last week. Why is it that during the holidays we find time to read as many stories as we want in between family dinners eating turkey with the trimmings or maybe shrimps on the “barbie” and watching football or cricket, depending on the hemisphere where you live. It’s not that I am trying to escape traditions, then again, perhaps I am. Nevertheless, having the time to dig through publications for the occasional editorial gem is something I like to do.

In the article I came across on December 29, 2022 within the digital NPR (National Public Radio) site, 2022 was the year crypto came crashing down to Earth the news looked pretty bad. “In the future, 2022 may be regarded as a turning point for the world of virtual currencies, when they lost their luster and were cast out as a fringe product most people approach with skepticism and caution.” Well, that’s perhaps the biggest understatement of the year, right?

But wait, there’s more. According to Lee Reiners, who teaches cryptocurrency law at Duke University, the swift and total collapse of FTX (along with the company's founder, Sam Bankman-Fried), "the biggest event in crypto's history" - a history, he adds, that's "replete with a lot of failures and scams and frauds and hacks."

“We won’t be fooled again,” you might say, but as one songwriter said, “put it down to simple greed!” Or worse! The way NPR saw things, even as “there's an expression crypto enthusiasts use, with fingers crossed, in the hopes a particular digital currency's value will blast off: ‘To the moon!’ Much of crypto did graze the stratosphere at the start of 2022, when enthusiasm was astronomically high, but a few months later it all came crashing back down to Earth.”

Leave it to Warren Buffett to see things a little differently when back in 2018 he called bitcoin, “rat poison squared!” And worse. “Whether it goes up or down in the next year, or five or 10 years, I don’t know. But the one thing I’m pretty sure of is that it doesn’t produce anything,” Buffett said (to CNBC). “It’s got a magic to it and people have attached magic to lots of things.”

To the moon? Magic? This wasn’t the only article that caught my attention as closer to home for some in IT and even for those in the NonStop community was yet one more story coming out of CNBC.

Published the day before, on December 28, 2022, The fintech reckoning is upon us. Here’s what to expect next year came the news that “Many fintech companies — particularly those dealing directly with retail borrowers — will be forced to shut down or sell themselves next year as startups run out of funding, according to investors, founders and investment bankers. Others will accept funding at steep valuation haircuts or onerous terms, which extends the runway but comes with its own risks, they said.”

Rather frightening to read was the reporting of how ““20% of all VC dollars went into fintech in 2021,” said Stuart Sopp, founder and CEO of digital bank Current. “You just can’t put that much capital behind something in such a short time without crazy stuff happening.”

Surprised to read: “‘We overfunded fintech, no question,’ said one founder-turned-VC who declined to be identified speaking candidly. ‘We don’t need 150 different neobanks, we don’t need 10 different banking-as-a-service providers. And I’ve invested in both’ categories, he said.” Even more surprising to then read: “‘We saw a company that raised $20 million that couldn’t even get a $300,000 bridge loan because their investors told them `We are no longer investing a dime. It was unbelievable.’”

According to the CNBC reporter, “All along the private company life cycle, from embryonic startups to pre-IPO companies, the market has reset lower by at least 30% to 50%, according to investors. That follows the decline in public company shares and a few notable private examples, like the 85% discount that Swedish fintech lender Klarna took in a July fundraising.”

Or, to put it more simply, according to Point72 Ventures partner Pete Casella, “What ultimately happens is you get into a death spiral. You can’t get funded and all your best employees start jumping ship because their equity is underwater.” It’s almost as if echoes of “there’s gold in them thar hills!” can be heard reverberating across the ether.

It would be easy for us to overact and perhaps it is just industries in transition after all. On the other hand, both the rush to crypto and the enthusiasm for fintech could benefit from a lot more discretion being exercised. This is not a call to invest in gold or in commodities in general. There will still be winners in both the crypto and fintech marketplaces but the prospect of them being absorbed into traditional businesses seems to be one outcome that I wouldn’t bet against.  

For the NonStop community where a degree of conservatism lives long and hard and where change is more evolution than revolution, such news doesn’t come as a shock. The presence of NonStop systems in financial institutions is a well-known reality. With the work that NonStop development has put into ensuring NonStop is as modern as any IT platform and fully capable of running any application needed to meet a business need, it’s still good to know that NonStop isn’t subject to either fashion or fads. It’s also becoming one reason why the introduction of NonStop into HPE’s GreenLake initiative is an important step forward.

How so? As the availability of money to fund initiatives like crypto and yes, even fintechs, retreats as rapidly as it has done in 2022, the growth of Cloud Service Providers will likely stall. Maybe not in quite as dramatic a fashion as either of the two cases above, but there will be impact. All of which is to confirm that having a steady hand on the hybrid IT tiller makes a whole lot of sense in 2023. Leverage your data created on NonStop and bring the cloud experience to you? Sounds like a plan!

If it means we can blend the best of NonStop with the opportunity to leverage cloud services, where appropriate – access to analytics comes naturally to mind – then this will keep many a CIO happy for some time. Moonshots are always a scary proposition. At best, the odds do not favor perceived deliverables arriving any time soon. To the moon? Yes, fingers crossed for sure, but in all seriousness, none of us should be all that frightened over what might happen to NonStop.

GreenLake holds promise of blending diverse worlds in a manner that actually maximizes the continued relevance of NonStop. With further work in support of virtualization that includes running within clouds, porting applications to NonStop is a breeze. And why would you do that? Why would this still be a consideration? Simple. It works. More than that, it has been working continuously for decades. You want a safe haven for your data? You got it!

The gold in those hills is data and in case we forget, the freshest data in the enterprise is created on NonStop so wouldn’t you want your applications to be located as close to the data creation as possible? You don’t have to think in terms of going to the moon to retrieve the gold, it’s all right there where it has always been and for the NonStop community, increasingly the news is of how GreenLake indeed has become golden!

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